CHAPTER 8

PLAYER PROFILING OR WATCHING WHO YOU PLAY WITH

Here’s some advice that will improve your game as much as it’ll have a positive impact on your wallet or purse. If you watched the movie, The Beautiful Mind, you’ll be familiar with the Mathematical John Nash and his discovery of Game Theory.

 Game Theory is a fascinating concept that turns game relationships, opponents and players, into mathematical functions that can be ‘crunched’ and computed. Playing styles can be analyzed and defined. In fact, the best Texas Hold’em computer simulations focus on playing styles more than just odds to study how the values of cards change depending on the betting style of the other players. Playing style has a much larger influence on the outcome of the game than most of us realized until the last few years.

Based again on these computer studies, four basic types of playing styles have been identified:

Loose passive: Often referred to as .calling stations., these players tend to call any bet as long as they have even the remotest chance of winning the pot. Interestingly, loose passive players often will not raise when they have a good hand (that’s the passive side of their unique personality). By the same token, they’ll also not fold when they have a garbage hand. They tend to stay in the majority of hands unless pushed hard to call.

Loose aggressive: Loose aggressive players will make often and inappropriate raises. They will not always have the best hand when they raise, and will even raise with garbage hands. Loose players tend to bet irrationally – first they raise, then they stay, then they raise then they fold. That uncertainty is a dead giveaway. Due to their inconsistent and irrational play, loose aggressive are often called .maniacs.. Playing against maniacs can be profitable, but they can also be expensive to play against, due to the number of wild raises you’ll have to call.

Tight passive: These players are known as .rocks.. Tight passive players play fewer hands than most and play them very cautiously. This is the preferred style of ‘fish’ play when starting out according to the Food Chain Theory of play. When a tight passive player does raise though watch out, it’s more than likely that they have the .nuts.. Playing tight passive will keep you from losing  money, but it won’t make you rich either.

Tight aggressive: Tight aggressive players also play few of the hands dealt to them, but will be much more varied in the way they play. If a tight aggressive player raises, you’ll never know if they have a good hand or if they’re bluffing. And that’s exactly the point. Tight aggressive players are selectively aggressive. They will bet very cautiously on good hands to try and trap players with lesser hands into betting later and building the pot. They will raise to create an expectation in other players that they have a great hand in order to push weaker players out of the hand. And this is very important, as you understand how reducing the number of players in the hand can dramatically increase the power of your hand. Tight aggressive is the standard that you should aspire to.

To practice your ability to ‘read’ player types, find a mid sized game. This size of game allows you more of a choice of who to sit by. Watch everyone play. Get a feel for who’s playing tight, who’s aggressive, and who sucks. Note who check raised, bluffed or semi bluffed. Count the number of times each player bets on the pre flop or folds. These are key indicators t o player type. If you can label each of the players in this way, you will have advanced your ability to win by leaps and bounds.

The first thing you need to decide as you observe is whether these players are clearly better than you. Always avoid games where it looks like one or two strong players are cleaning up on everyone else at the table. Very aggressive players will take over a table and cause a lot of grief. Steer clear of these tables if you consider yourself a fish or a barracuda. Even as a shark, usually one or two aggressive players at a table is enough eliminate easy wins. Increasing the overall tightness of a table only benefits the house, which will make more money from the rake than you will ever make from the pot.

The Mathematics of Aggression

How effective is aggressive play in online Texas Hold’em? Now, no guessing here. I want the facts. A very detailed study carried out by Carnegie Melon University showed the precise value of aggressive play. For the sake of this exercise, they had their computer simulated player come out playing aggressively on every hand, regardless of pocket pair quality, against a varied field of opponents. There were two very distinct scenarios (and only two) where this was a winning strategy.

 One – against a loose table, very aggressive play was a winning strategy. In the case of our experiment, being pre flop on every single hand added up to moderate winnings. In a real internet poker game, betting like a maniac on every hand may diminish the power of this strategy because other players will pick up on your strategy but we suspect, not by much in online play. Again, the secret is finding the right table. Imagine the joy of sitting down at a large table full of new players and yours is the biggest stack. Like ‘shooting fish in a barrel’ as they say. This is the kind of table you are searching for.

 Two ­– Against three or less players, this aggressive approach was also a net moneymaker. As soon as you go to four players or better, the technique started to hemorrhage serious money. All of our research shows that bluffing at full or near full tables is a waste of money, and this study supports that. At the end of this chapter we have included a complete chart on the pocket hands that successfully take the pot based on number of players at the table. You will see quite clearly that strong hands double in power and relatively weak cards can become big winners. Narrow the field and you can pump up the power of your cards.

 An excellent indicator of playing style is that the bankrolls of tight players tend to go down in small amounts incrementally, and periodically go up in mid and large amounts. Watching stacks can give you valuable information about player style. Insider Tip

Loose Player Have Bigger Swings.

Money tends to move clockwise around the table because it’s easier to read players to the right. When that really loose player is about to take a negative swing, you want to be a positional advantage over him or her. Even more, you want a maniac on your right. Maniacs eliminate players with okay and drawing hands. Twenty year old high school students are more readable, and you profit from being able to act directly after them.

Here’s a question then – would you prefer to sit down card from a great player or a poor player?

Sitting in late (next in sequence) from a poor player does not give you much of an advantage. You really need to know as much as possible about the best players, the one’s most likely to take your money.

A loose player, someone who plays only for fun and doesn’t really understand the game, is like an old car. He or she will wander all over the road, their steering is wobbly and they can’t be depended on to play according to their cards. Watch for and appreciate loose players. They are great contributors. They tend to bet more than they win and build pots for the rest of us.

While different players prefer different styles of play, the general consensus is that the ideal table is loose passive. That means lots of callers and few raises, especially before the flop. You will also want to play at tables where most, if not all of the players are worse than you. You will make most of your profit from other player’s mistakes.

 Tight players on your left will more likely call a bet than re-raise even though they might have a decent hand. You can more easily scare them into thinking you’ve got the nuts and buy more free cards despite the fact that they’ve got a positional advantage on you. Research shows that lots of pre flop raising reduces your potential profit. It also becomes more expensive to see the flop overall, which negatively affects your bankroll all those times when the flop doesn’t hit you.

 It is always better to have six players calling one bet than three players calling two bets. Even though the pot size in both cases is the same, in the first situation you will make a profit of 5:1, whereas in the raising situation you will only make a profit of 2:1. Simply put, the more players there are putting money into the pot, the more profit there will be when you win.

Insider Tip: A tighter game, where fewer players are calling before the flop and staying until the showdown, can also reduce your overall profit. But some players prefer a tight passive table, since tight passive opponents are rather predictable. A tight passive table gives a player the opportunity to steal more pots, since you can often make more players fold with a well timed raise.

Fishing For Loose Players

If you sit at a table of ten and at least half of the players are better than you, you will lose. If one or two of the players are better than you, you have a fair chance of taking some money home but this is still not an idea situation. Your profit is going to be determined more by the composition of the table than the types of cards you are dealt. You can’t control the cards – you can pick your table and move if it gets ugly.

How do you know? As we have been preaching, the great advantage of internet poker is that it allows you to observe the table before you play. Once you have carefully observe. The best recommendation I can give you is, if you want to be a winner, spend at least 15 minutes. Many would suggest spending at least 30 minutes before beginning play. This may seem like a lot of time to invest – but once you begin to play, you will have a clear idea of who you need to beat and who you need to milk to win.

The Table Rating System

Here’s a simple rating system we use to evaluate how ‘winnable’ a table is.

 We assign each player a number from 1 to 10.

 Ten (10) is the loosest player – a beginner, someone who bets wildly and shows poor cards at the showdown.

 One (1) is for the tightest player. Someone who plays and wins consistently, can’t be bluffed, has accumulated substantial winnings, makes reasonable decisions, and doesn’t play every hand.

 Assign each player at the table a number from 1 to 10.

 If you are not sure from observation what their score is, score them higher than you would guess. They are probably better players. On a piece of paper or in your head, mark the table with these numbers.

 When you get a chance to, always play down card from the two best players on the table. This is a winning position. Now add up the numbers and divide by the total players.

1+3+7+4+5+1+1+10+9 = 4.5

 If the average of the table is 6 or better, don’t play. There are too many good players for you to be a consistent winner. Even an average of 5 can reduce your chances. What you are looking for is a table where most of the players are looser than you. The lower the number the better.

The Casino Giveth Sometimes

Players who never fold on the first two cards even when it costs them, are loose. A higher percentage means a much looser game. Most internet poker rooms, such as Ultimate bet, list the percentage of players who are seeing the flop. Players who fold often on the first two cards tend to be tighter players.

 All internet poker rooms also list the average pot size. You do not necessarily want to play at the table with the highest average pot size, since they may indicate a lot of raises going into the pot.

 For loose passive games, choose a table with a relatively high flop percentage and a reasonable average pot size.

Another factor to consider is the name of players at the table. Most internet poker tables are ten handed, which means you’ll have to play relatively tight. You should take position into account and call before the flop with premium cards or good drawing hands. More p layers means more competition, so you’ll have to show down better hands.

 At a six handed table, you can play considerably looser than you can at ten handed table. The side effect of this is that you’ll experience more variance (the swings in the bankroll will be greater). Some Players prefer short handed tables because you get to see the flop more often, and thus have more chances at winning the pot.

 Aggression in poker has far more power at a short handed table. Insider Tip: It will take some experience to learn what type of table is best for you. While you can’t go wrong with a loose passive table full of mediocre players, you may find that a loose aggressive or tight passive table suits you best. If you find yourself at a table where you are struggling to make a profit, don’t hesitate to leave and join another table.

Raises in Loose Games

All new poker players will generally start out in loose, low limit games. While most experienced players prefer the sort of loose passive play present at a low limit table, others may have difficulty playing against opponents who repeatedly .suck out. And win with garbage hands and bad plays. A common complain among low limit players is that opponents will not always fold to appropriate raises, and occasionally, mediocre low limit players will make incorrect raises. Knowing when to raise, and how to interpret an opponent’s raise is covered below. The following information assumes that you have made an appropriate table selection, and are not playing at a table that is overly aggressive or tight.

If you’ve got a great starting hand, especially a high pair (JJ or higher), don’t hesitate to raise and re-raise before the flop. Insider Tip

 One of the most common complaints among low limit players is that opponents often suck out with inferior hands against a solid hand such as AA. The best way to win with these hands is to play them fast and aggressively.

Raise before the flop, and keep on betting after the flop. Unless the game is ridiculously loose (and your opponents are ridiculously bad), almost all of your opponents will fold to your aggressive betting. You won’t always win with AA or KK, but if you play them aggressively, the majority of the time you will.

Again, the research shows that aggressive play will drive down the number of players in the hand and increase your odds of winning.

Since many low limit players will play incorrectly and call bets and raises with just about any half decent hand, you need to make sure that you are raising when you think you have the best hand. If you do have what you believe is the best hand at that point, then you need to raise to get other players out of the pot, who may draw out on you with a garbage hand. If you are repeatedly winning and showing down the best hands, then other players will start to respect your raises and get out of your way.

If you’ve flopped a decent hand (top pair with good kicker, two pair, etc.,) and are betting on it, don’t be scared off if someone raises it to two bets.

Although you could very well be beaten, experience shows that bad players will sometimes raise with any decent pair, a draw or even overcards. Call the bet, and be prepared to call to the river unless the board looks scary or the action gets too intense. If you fold every time you get raised with a decent hand, then you’ll lose out on some pots that you would have won, had you shown the hand down.

Utilize pot odds to determine whether the payoff is big enough to justify putting in more bets. Then observe opponents play to see if the raise is valid. Insider Tip: On the other hand , if an opponent re-raises it to three bets, be very concerned. Generally, a mediocre low limit player will not re-raise unless they have a great hand. Take time to study the board to determine what your opponent might have. You might be tempted to follow the above advice and c all him to the river, hoping that he is bluffing. But time and time again, they will turn up a superior hand. Don’t re-raise unless you have the nuts, and if you don’t have the absolute nuts, be prepared to call to the river.

Playing Tighter

If everyone at Texas Hold’em Poker table plays loose then no one can win.

 The players will trade pots back and forth while the casino slowly rakes all their money. The better Hold’em players will lose less, but in the long run, no one can win.

 “No one can win if everyone plays tight. Only the house wins.”

Insider Tip: The tight players will trade smaller pots back and forth while the casino rakes all their money. The better Hold’em players will lose less, but no one can win.

If everyone at the Texas Hold’em Poker table plays the same, no one can win. Learning Hold’em only by simply playing Hold’em is player’s folly. If you learn to play Texas Hold’em poker like everyone else plays, you cannot have a long run edge.

To win at Texas Hold’em Poker you must play tight in loose games and play in loose games only.

There is no other way. You have no edge in a tight Hold’em game and you only have an edge in a loose game if you play tight. If might be possible to play loose and win in the long run if all the other players are complete idiots, but nature does not provide enough complete idiots who play Hold’em poker. As players come and go during a Hold’em poker session the game will sometimes get tighter. You’ll see more players folding on the first round. The pots will be smaller. If your Hold’em game gets too tight, find a better game or don’t play at all.

You want to be the only tight player in a loose Hold’em poker game, but often there are one or more other tight players at the table. Sometimes loose players tighten up their play for whatever reason, but that’s usually temporary. You’ll have to take all of this into consideration when evaluating a Hold’em poker game. There’s no exact way to measure it, but you can develop a feel for it.

The Law Of Big Numbers

Most of us are impressed with big numbers – like the size of Bill Gate’s fortune. But what about small numbers that give you a huge advantage?

Let’s say you improve your odds of winning by 5%? So instead of winning 10 in every 100 pots (on average) you could increase that to 15. Doesn’t sound like much does it? Ten in 100 pots for 10 players really means you are getting back the money you bet less the house rake. Start with $100. Play 100 hands of Poker. The rake is $1 per pot. That’s $100 the house takes from all the winnings leaving you $90 at the end of the night. They played all night and lost $10. Write that off to entertainment. With 15 pots – that little 5% advantage means a lot.

You are now up, just based on average play, $115 for the night. Small numbers make huge differences. Play three times a week for a year and you are up $18,000 based on your 5% advantage.

Never Sequence Bet

A sequence bet is a bet based on the idea that “Well, I’ve put in so much money on this lousy hand, I might as well see it through.” Never change future strategy based on a past hands. So you got lucky and drew on an inside straight? You should have folded. Not only will that luck not return, it will make you a looser player. We will tend to use the experience to modify future play. Show the avatars (people in chairs), but don’t stereotype them. This is probably the most debatable tip I’m guessing, because if you’ve turned them off, you probably really don’t like the avatars to begin with. And if you do like avatars, well, they’re probably on already. I just want to get my two cents in about this Party Poker tip by saying that even though avatars are computer graphics, it’s again human nature to easily identify faces. That means we can more easily associate a personality to a face, so it makes it easier to remember how someone is playing when we can attach a face to a playing style.

That being said, I’m sure there is some negative influence of these faces as well, because we probably tend to associate a certain avatar with a playing style. For instance, I’ll admit that I used to mentally associate one of the avatar pictures with bluffing. I think this was caused by a long string of coincidences, when different players using that avatar would constantly bluff, so I just started linking that specific with bluffing. Don’t let this happen to you. If you are a 2 or a 3 – how do you get to be a 7 or an 8?

Playing Poker Solitaire

Human psychology is very interesting. Research has shown that the average gambler tends to underestimate the cards of their opponents and overvalue their own. One of the best ways to understand this tendency is to play Solitaire Poker. Play out 6  10 hands of Texas Hold’em, evaluate your card odds for the flop, and then look at the other down cards. You will be surprised at the number of opportunities to win you will see in the competition’s hands.

Be hard on your hand. Sure you could draw a card that will help you but so can all of the other remaining players. One of the best exercises in an actual game is to try and guess the other two players down cards based on their playing style and betting. The better you become at this, the better your game will become. In the end, isn’t this really the point of the game?

Reading Your Opponents

Internet Poker eliminates visual and verbal clues ‘tells’) from the game. You can’t see the faces of the other players (their real faces, in any case). This limits your ability to read the other players. The rules in internet poker compensate for this by giving us a wealth of information in other ways.

-How the other players react to the best?

-How quickly do they respond?

-What’s their betting style?

-How often do they raise and when?

-Are they consistent – stay, raise, raise?

-Or raise, stay, raise, fold?

Wait a Full Table Rotation Before Posting the BB

Online ‘Tells’ The in turn buttons lead to the most obvious tell unique to internet poker. If the blinking light representing a player acts immediately, it’s likely this person has clicked the box of an in turn action. It is usually easy to determine when a player has a no brainer hand. The immediate .check. is often incredibly revealing. If you are first to act, and for some reason take a moment before checking, and your three opponents immediately check behind you like rifle fire, this is a tell as big as Texas. They haven’t got a thing.

Another common situation… the first player takes a moment, and then finally checks. You have the .bet/raise in turn. Button checked, so your bet appears, but instantly the player next to you raises. Uh oh, he had the bet/raise button checked too, and didn’t care what you or the first player did. That tells a lot more than a just normal raise would an awful lot more. Besides the speed of action resulting from using the buttons, other internet poker tells can be discerned from how slow a player commonly acts on their hand. Players who are consistently super slow (rude human speed bumps) are likely not paying attention to the game, either because they are playing two games and are not competent at it, or because they are doing other work at home. Either way, if all of a sudden this person plays a hand crisply and promptly and aggressively… well, they just woke up because they’ve got something.

The Stall is a common tell among average or slightly below average players. When the last card in Hold’em or Omaha makes a coordinated board (making a nut hand like a flush), the mediocre player pauses as if thinking, and then finally bets. This pause almost always means .powerhouse. or at least that the bettor thinks he has a killer hand. Some would call it reverse psychology, but more often than not, it’s true.

PRE FLOP STRATEGY

Before you start betting like a madman when you get two eights in the pocket, you need to carefully consider all factors involved in solid pre flop strategy. The factors to consider are the number of players, how aggressive/passive the players at the table are, your bankroll, your position, and how much risk you are willing to entail.

THE RIGHT NUMBER OF PLAYERS

When 10 people in the game, it’s much more likely that someone else has a strong hand in the pocket than in a short handed game. Also, you’ll need to be more cautious in larger games, as the chances of someone’s pre flop hand fitting the flop will be much better. More competition means stiffer competition.

HOW AGGRESSIVE ARE THE OTHER PLAYERS

Assuming you’ve been playing with a few people for several hands, and you noticed some jackass is raising every hand pre flop, you’ll want to play tighter. Let the guy win the blinds (big deal) and nail him to the wall when you have a solid hand in the pocket pre flop.

Your Bankroll

If you have $2 left, you’ll want to play extremely carefully and select one hand to bet on, hoping to get as many players involved as possible for a larger pot. You’ll want to be all in before the flop is dealt. On the flip side, if you have $1000 at a $1/$2 table, you can take the high risk, high payout bets. If you are worried about losing your money, you should stop playing poker, switch tables or take a break. Second reason to buy more than is necessary, is for intimidation factor. Opinions may differ, but faced off against a big stack, my feelings are that a good amount of players (but not all) show a bit more respect (read: fear) and will play accordingly which is to your benefit. Now, don’t read this as buying in for $1,000 in a $1/2 game, because then people will think you are just nuts, but $400. Now we’re talking

Buy in More Than Necessary At The Poker Table

If you’ve been doing your homework, you’ll know that you should always sit in with at minimum 50 times the big blind at any poker table. In the realities of internet poker, this should be more along the lines of at least 100 times the BB. You should think about doing this too. Why? First, don’t ever be in the position of holding the nuts and not having enough money to raise the pot. I’ve seen this happen too many times, where a guy will have flopped a full house in a $3/6 game, but only have $12 in his bankroll. He could have made a killing if it weren’t for the fact he was playing with a small stack.

CHEATING, BLUFFING AND SEMI-BLUFFING

Trust everybody, but cut the cards...   Finley Peter Dunne

 No, we are not going to teach you how to cheat. Our topic is spotting cheaters. And of course, our focus will largely be on online cheating.

 Internet poker rooms are probably the safest place to play at right now. Did your mother ever tell you to never trust a stranger? Well, playing online limits the number of sneaky people you could potentially be dealing with. The dealer is a program. Programs don’t cheat. You don’t have to worry about any sort of illegal card handling. There are no cards online.

Some people worry about hackers.

It’s been many, many years since the last major instance of hacking affected anyone wagering money in an online Hold’em game. Since then we’ve had breakthroughs like the SSLv3/TLSv1 encryption algorithms and multi layered random number sequences. Not only do we have these very technical advances, but all the ones you would expect in a real casino.

The most common form of online cheating is player collusion.

That’s when two or more players reveal to each other what cards they hold. This form is more difficult to pull off in a live game, but playing internet poker gives players the chance to have a fellow player on the phone with them, or sitting next to them at another computer. Fortunately most of these players are the ones who have no idea how to use that advantage. These two must coordinate well together, which takes practice. Internet poker rooms not only look for telltale signs of collusion, but check to see if two players always play at the same table together. They would have to use hit and run tactics when using this form of cheating. Colluding players would have to hit up a high limit table, then flee to another Internet poker room with their winnings and never look back.

It is barely worth it to try collusion. But just in case, here are some things to look for –

1. A team of players who try to steamroll other players out of the game. This means re-raising each other to make non-colluding players call multiple bets at once.

2. Players who never play fast pre flop. That’s the time to talk about what they hold. Watch whoever is under the gun and be mindful of reaction time.

3. A group of players who hike up bets by re-raising with someone in between them. This gets the maximum amount of bets out of a third party. The alarm should really go off if one of those re-raising players has a poor hand, or if one of them folds with one bet to go despite a massive pot. There’s a time to bluff and a time to fold and the most people have an idea when that is, so be on the lookout for players who exercise horrible judgment like that. Identify that person as a potential goldmine for yourself or a potential cheater. Once again, it’s VERY rare for someone to even attempt these sort of things. Still, never accuse anyone of cheating. Either contact the poker room’s administrators or just get up and leave.

BLUFFING

You can fool some people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time. - Abraham Lincoln

A Key Element In Poker Is Deception.

Bluffing is the quintessential trick in poker. Of course, the reasoning for a bluff is to deceive the other players into thinking you have a better hand when you actually do not. For a bluff to work, you need the other players to think you actually have that better hand.

Many beginning poker players love this idea of bluffing and often misuse it. The value of the bluff increases under certain general circumstances that often have a lot to do with information you assume about the other players. This vagueness makes it difficult to give definitive reasons or places to bluff. Some less generalized times to bluff and some advice are given below. The bottom of the page gives more ideas and perspectives on deception in poker.

Some typical reasons to bluff…

1. When there aren’t many other players in a pot. Simply put, it’s easier to trick a couple people than a crowd.

With a fewer hands out there, chances are better that no one has made a reasonable hand. This is fairly common though, so many players won’t believe you. Some will stay in the hand just to keep you honest, so sometimes this needs to be a persistent bluff over a period of two or three betting rounds. That can be costly if they don’t fall for it. You need to know the players before you use this type of bluff.

2. When you’re up against fairly tight players. Those that tend to fold easily are the biggest targets of a bluff.

Bets will be put out just as a form of information gathering on this player’s hand. If you bluff early (pre flop, flop) against a very tight player and they don’t buckle, you should think twice about trying it again on a future round. They have something. Your job is to determine whether they have a made or drawing hand. Once again, you need to know the players.

3. On the river

Especially if apparent drawing hands missed. That’s when players react to rule #1. The moment you know you can’t win, throw in your cards. It is often a good idea to bluff with a weak hand, like ace high or lowest pair with these kinds of bluffs, because some 131 players will stay in just because of pot odds. If you do that, it is actually semi bluffing.

4. You’re in late position and everyone else checked.

This one you’ll have to gauge for yourself. IT will most likely force some players out, but not all. This is a pretty common bluff once again, and many players will stay in just because of bet odds, and/or to once again keep you honest. This is another example of a bluff that needs to be more persistent over a couple betting rounds.

5. You bet pre flop and missed.

That’s because they don’t know you missed! This can be dangerous, and you really have to evaluate to board before you get into this one. Sometimes it’s good to bluff when AK misses, sometimes when 99 misses. You have to really feel this one out.

6. You have given other players the fear.

It’s about how other players perceive you. If you just won a hand through good play, the players who say nice hand are the ones who now respect you. They will more likely fold to your bluff if you play it right. The trick is to play the hand exactly the same way you played the other winning hand. Give it the here we go again act.

7. When the flop isn’t so great

Some players will fold automatically if all they have is an over card. With a rainbow flop of 2, 6, 9, not many players will have much. This is another example of a bluff that can go horribly awry.

I wouldn’t be too persistent in this case, unless only more low cards pop up. Once again, know your players.

8. Pre flop on the button, and everyone else has folded.

This is usually best used with tight players to your left. It’s good because it can change from a bluff to a deceptively good hand with luck and the right flop.

9. When there is a pair on the board

This is especially useful when the pair is 88 or lower. Chances are that these cards might have been folded or are still in the deck. This is on situation where you want to evaluate the hand very carefully if they do call though. This is a great situation to read the tells of the players who are NOT involved in the game. It’s much easier to give away the fact that you HAD a card than if you HAVE it. Keep in mind that these are pretty common reasons to bluff. Many players know these reasons. Most of the time it just won’t work. The main thing is always to know your players and to not do it so often that it never works.

SEMI BLUFFING

Semi bluffing is a sort of bluff where you have a poor hand or a drawing hand that can possibly improve.

Against player with nothing it functions a lot like a bluff. Against players with something it functions as a form of aggression. It is a powerful tool, as it can lead to a deceptively powerful hand if the cards come to you. It can also be a source of great loss if overused or misused.

Semi bluffing in Texas Hold’em is used best in bluffing situations. Its usefulness comes from the fact that players who recognize a bluff won’t necessarily recognize when you make your draw. It is more useful (and preferable) against a lot of players, as opposed to outright bluffing, since the odds tend to be better. Other than that, you’ll want to use semi bluffing in late position, usually on the flop or turn, against mediocre flops, and against poor players. Let’s look at two examples of semi bluffing from a perspective of odds and from a perspective of bluffing:

1. You have a Jack of Hearts, and a Ten of Hearts.

 THE POCKET

 The pre flop betting round concludes with six players investing two bets each. The flop is Ace of Hearts, Queen of Spades, Seven of Hearts.

 You are in a middle position, and decide to semi bluff. Why?

You’ve got draws, that’s why! Any Heart or King will give you a hand. Whether you have multiple draws like that, start thinking of what would be ideal. If a Heart pops up you have to worry about a higher flush draw, so you probably want the King of Hearts, as he is the most likely to be in someone’s hand. A Queen of Hearts would be dangerous for you, since you’d be looking at a royal flush draw vs. a potentially made full house. Ideally you want a non Heart King and the straight. That would be the nuts. For simplicity’s sake let’s say that in your evaluation, either a flush or straight will give you a winning hand. You have twelve outs (don’t count the King of Hearts twice). That’s a little better than a 25% chance of hitting a winning card on the turn. Even re-raising or check raising would be a good idea in this position based purely on odds. Even if you miss on the turn, it would be in your interests (based on players reactions) to continue to bet it right out.

2. You have a pair of sixes in the pocket.

THE POCKET

 Pre flop eliminates all but you and another player who was in early position before you. You get a rainbow flop of Four, Five, Ten. 135 Semi bluff!

In this case you have to think of it more as a bluff. If this only player played a hand in early position, they probably have some over cards in this case. You want the pot right then and there. Most players will bluff back at you in this case with just an Ace in the pocket. Stick to your resolve. Bluff.

Your chances of getting that six are pretty slim, and not worth the odds.

You only have to worry about your opponent having over pairs and matching the Ten. So you really have to evaluate the player, as opposed to the math in this case

Try To Be On The Aggressive

You need information about your opponent’s hand. Betting is a real good way to get information. Also, a casual semi bluffing check raise can be all you need to scare another player if you think they’ll bluff at the pot.

How To Tell If You

Have a Texas Hold’em

Nut Hand

Want to have a Texas Hold’em hand that no one can beat? With a little practice, you can learn to read the table and determine the hole cards necessary to make the nut hand. Most of the time no one actually has the nuts, but when someone raises, take time to study the table carefully. Do they have what it takes? It pay to know the difference between a probable winner and the absolute nuts. A nut set is three of a kind with a pair in the hole equal to the highest card on the board and no possibility of a straight or a flush. The highest possible nut set on the river is a set of queens

(see example)

YOUR HAND

THE BOARD

This set of queens is the nuts. There is no possibility of a higher set, a straight or a flush.

YOUR HAND

THE BOARD

 In this hand, one or more players could have 10, 9 in the hole and this top set of queens could then be sandwiched between nut straights. Even 7,5 in the hole would make a straight.

YOUR HAND

THE BOARD

The nut hole cards are king anything of spades. Any two spades in the hole would beat this set of aces.

Texas Hold’em Poker Nut Hands Flushes

The nut flush is an ace high flush with the highest possible flush card in the hole, no pair or better on the board and no possibility of a straight flush. Insider tip Sometimes, there is a flush on the board and it might be the best hand, but there cannot be a nut flush on the board. In Texas Hold’em Poker there can be only one nut flush. If the winning hand is a flush, it wins the entire pot.

Texas Hold’em Poker Nut Hands Full Houses

You have the nut full house in Texas Hold’em Poker when there is only one pair on the board that is higher than the other upcards and equal to your high hole card and the next highest upcard is equal to your other hole card and there is no possibility of a straight flush. Insider Tip: You have the nut full house in Texas Hold’em Poker when there are two pairs on the board that are higher than the fifth upcard and each pair is equal to one of your hole cards and there is no possibility of a straight flush. There cannot be a nut full house on the board. If there’s a full house on the board, the nut hand is four of a kind.

You cannot have a nut full house with a pocket pair. Insider Tip:

The Pre Flop Winning Odds System

These charts are based on 400,000,000 Texas Hold’em Poker hands dealt to 10 players.

This is my favorite table. It sits by my mouse during every online game I play. And here’s why.

Hold Cards & Winning Percentage

HOW TO BET A PRE FLOP

Example You are dealt two queens. Time comes to match or raise a bet. The chance of winning the hand is 22% (see chart). The pot is $50. Based on a 22% chance of winning, your pot odds would indicate a safe bet of $10 at the pre flop (22% x $50). Then somebody goes crazy and starts betting. Do you know what kind of player they are? Do they have a pair of 9’s? Over 50% of the pots are won by a pair of 9’s or better.

 Tight players never deviate from these rules unless they are playing with a very weak table.

When you start out, if you follow these guidelines you will lose less while you are learning and you will start to win more consistently.

Another example –

 You are dealt a pair of aces in the pocket.

The odds of winning with 2 aces is 31% the best odds in the game. Pre flop you have as massive advantage. The only choice at this point what should the maximum bet be. Estimate the total of the pot at the end of the betting round and bet no more than 31%

If you estimate the pot to be $150 the maximum bet you should take is 31% of $150 = $31. Question – If the bet to stay in is much lower, should you raise? For example if the bet to you is $20 do you raise? There are two considerations here. With an average hand, you may want to see players leave the game and improve your odds of winning. Raising to the maximum could have that effect. On the other hand, having the nuts means you want to build the pot at the early stages. Anything can still happen – you don’t have a lock on the win remember. You only have a 31% chance of winning.

Our advice – win as much as you can when you have the right cards. In this example, raise the bet to $30 if you have a lot of weak players and see who stays in. Bet slightly less $15-$20 if the table is stronger.

 Example – You draw a 2 and a 7. This is the worst pocket hand you can be dealt based on the odds of winning. It should be clear why.

You have no higher cards to build on. You have no flush potential and no chance of developing a straight.

You have a 4% chance of winning the pot. Should you stay in? Only if the cost to stay in the game and see the flop is less than 4% of the total pre flop pot. Estimate the pot at $100 that would mean a maximum bet of $4. Based on a game where the blind is $5/$10 you would need at least a 10% chance of winning. Get out fast. What if you fold and see a 2 and a 7 in the flop – two pairs? This can happen and you may be beating yourself up over it. But if you let a bad example of odds modify your play and betting, over the long haul you will be suckered in by long shots and your style of play will suffer. The odds are the odds.

As you can see from these examples, a simple rule is the larger the pot, the better the cards you would need at the pre flop to stay in the game.

REASONS NOT TO BLUFF

Bluffing should probably not be an automatic reaction. Many times it takes a feel for a table to make you want to bluff. When doing it keep in mind that everyone else is also looking for an opportunity to bluff. Maybe you spot them bluffing in a common situation or they spot you. It only works when you get away with it, so you must use it sparingly. Here are some times when you outright should not bluff.

1. When players expect you to.

Don’t be a fish. Revealing your playing style can be bluffing in telltale situations against players who know them. That’s a common money maker for the other players. Always consider this rule before attempting a bluff.

2. When you’ve been caught bluffing recently.

You’ve been labeled as a poor bluffer already. Ride it out. Let them forget that hand. Start rebuilding a reputation as a straight player so you can eventually try a bluff again later (and hopefully not screw it up again)

3. Against a dangerous flop.

  If the flop has an ace. Chances are that someone has a pair of aces. Aces tend to make it beyond pre flop. Also, players tend to continue to play their Aces. Don’t bluff against Aces. You also wouldn’t want to bluff against a flop like K,Q,9. Chances are someone has something they’ll stick with. 

4. Against lots of players.

Chances are that someone has something that they’ll stick with. By bluffing in this situation, you just become an agent of that player. From an odds perspective, this is never worth it.

5. Against bad players.

As much as they love to bluff, they love to catch someone in a bluff. They’re much more likely to keep you honest. Because they don’t realize what a money loser that is. It’s much more profitable to play straight up in these games. Bluffing is only effective from a fear perspective in this case.

6. You just lost a big hand.

Not only might you be on a bad run, but other players will expect you to be on a bad run, and will more readily call you.

7. You are in a blind position.

You really have to evaluate the flop, but generally other players will think you have a poor hand and expect you to bluff.

Using Odds During a Bluff

It’s always good to look at poker from a mathematical perspective, and that even applies to bluffing. You can determine finite amounts and percentages that can tell you if it is a financially feasibly good time to bluff. This is particularly useful when there are only one or two players and the pot is rather large.

It’s good to do these calculations with potential straights or flushes that appeared on the river, that you were going for but you didn’t make.

It’s nice with a flop that starts with Heart, Heart, Spade, and ends with Spade, Spade. You had two Hearts. Or a flop like Five, Seven, Eight, and ends with Ten, Jack. You had a Six. It’s also good because they might have been on the same draw, which leads them to believe (also from on odds perspective) that you were not on that draw.

Let’s say that one of the above cases occurred in a $5/$10 game and on the river there is $140 in the pot. You only opponent checks to you.

If you check, you know you’ve lost. So you bluff. The reasoning is that if you invest another $10, you’re getting 14 to 1 odds. As a percent that’s around 7%. If they fold more than 7% of the time, you make money in the long poker game of life. If not, it’s a losing venture. You still have to evaluate the player, but from a purely mathematical standpoint, you get the picture. You can also evaluate it by reasoning that they missed their draw more than 7% of the time and will fold.

If two players were involved in the pot, it cuts the odds in half. With three, it becomes 1/3^rd of 7%, etc. You can see why you want to bluff against fewer players. This can be unreliable though, as some players will stay in purely based on pot odds. So when bluffing you cannot ever use just odds. Get a feel for your opponents, and act accordingly.

HOW TO KNOW WHEN THEY’RE BLUFFING?

This isn’t about reading tells. This is about the situations where bluffing is plausible, and when other players will do it. You can generally look at the reasons YOU should bluff and apply them to other players. Of course, you also have to know the player, and evaluate it from there, but here are some ideas.

1. They are betting aggressively despite a poor flop.

 If they bet pre flop from a poor position, and the flop is something like 4, 5, 5 they are probably just trying to keep momentum going and bluff their way out of this hand. They probably have genuinely zero drawing chances with over cards or maybe an over pair, but a re-raise could have them re-think that strategy. It might also give you a betting round or two to try and make YOUR hand.

2. Pot Odds are in their favor.

If everyone folds on the turn with a big pot, like when an obvious draw was missed, expect a bluff. It’s almost certain that anyone will bluff against a big pot. With the pot odds the way they are, you probably want to stay in those hands also.

3. It’s between you and them.

The most common time to bluff is when you CAN pull it off. It’s very easy to trick just one person. Use your skills at evaluating the previous rounds and the board to determine what they might have.

4. The flop doesn’t have any draw.

Sometimes someone will bet in this case to eliminate the ability to acquire a draw, sometimes because they have a good hand. You really have to know the player in this case.

5. They bet on the Flop, checked on the turn.

If there was a draw, and it didn’t hit, they are probably just buying a free card. Bet back against them and take the initiative.

6. Bet on the flop, bet on the turn, checked on the river.

Same as before, but they bought another turn. Might as well bet back at them

7. They bet and tell you to save your money

If they really wanted you to save your money, they wouldn’t have bet. Sometimes players say that just to create the opposite image, so look out. Few are that crafty though, so tell your opposition that he’s bluffing and re-raise.

HOW TO ATTACK A WEAK PLAYER

The most successful players are not always the tightest… and you can’t win anything when you fold. Insider Tip: Pros add to their hourly win rate by finding times to play hands that are small losers in the hands of lesser players. They do this both by playing those hands especially well and by playing them when a bad player is already in. That’s why knowing your table is so important.

The secret to beating internet poker can be where you get a lot of tight passive players sitting on their hands while a successful player (or two or three) eats an awful player (or two) alive. Most people play backwards. They play loose and see a lot of flops in the early rounds, then absurdly tighten up later. Unless you are one of those rare players who simply can’t play without a big stack, don’t fritter away your chips in the early rounds on marginal junk. Those chips can be very useful once the important rounds begin. Sitting around waiting for good cards to play against the tight players is fairly pointless. There is zero point to playing in a game with decent players.

The only reason to be in this game is to play with the fish.

BAD HANDS THAT LOOK GOOD

This hand makes me think of the data a major Casino put out about the actual results of all Hold’em hands for the first six million games played on their site. The hands that lost the most money were not the worst hands possible. The biggest money loser (not coincidentally) is 32s. It lost more than 32s or 72s. Then also, A2s lost more than 32s.

Most players overvalue garbage cards. It’s the kiss of death. Insider Tip:

Hands that should do better than other hands (32s should do better than 32o) end up doing markedly worse because people play them and think they have something.

23 is the single most costly Hold’em holding in the hands of 90% of the players… and it holds that distinction by far. 234 is a big improvement, adding the 7 helps, and adding a suit does too, but anyone who thinks this is a good hand is surely going to lose a lot of money with it.

Again, this scenario is about the best possible for the hand (besides a free ride in the blind of course), but the hand is still highly speculative and will be a money loser for non good players. Contrast this to A347 and even a non good player will have a profitable hand on the button.

The pursuit of available information, even if it takes a bit of work, is largely what separates winning (and breakeven) players from losing players.

Certainly most players lose, but the combination of the winning players and the smallish losers is in the ballpark of half the players. Big-time losers is a small percentage especially among players who play more than five sessions in their life. Also, the whole concept of a big-time loser is fallacious because while plenty of players lose 100% of what they deposit that 100% is often $100.

Continue Chapter 9

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